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Terrorist attacks happen after years of careful planning; however, these plans always leave a trail of activities―a road map to the terrorists' forthcoming actions. These indicators include terrorist travel, movement of weapons, training, target surveillance, and tests of security. This guidebook identifies 68 such indicators and shows how to analyze them using a step-by-step explanation. It also includes safeguards against 38 of the 42 common warning pitfalls that experts have identified. That analysis then yields warnings that can prevent attacks and save lives. The methodology can be applied to any intelligence topic (not just terrorism) by simply changing the list of indicators.
Warning failures are rarely due to inadequate collection; they are more frequently due to intelligence that has been ignored because it is delivered with weak analysis. With this model, author Sundri Khalsa brings sophisticated analysis methodology to security forces everywhere, promising a safer world. The accompanying CD-ROM provides a website display that is the interface to this forecasting system. It also includes a 45-minute video that describes the methodology step-by-step using the website display.
This methodology was characterized by the Unit Chief of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Counterterrorism Threat Monitoring Unit as "light-years ahead," while officials in the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) have identified this system as "the bedrock for the evolving approach to terrorism analysis," and an "unprecedented forecasting model." This guide will be of interest to policy makers, journalists, police authorities, and concerned citizens.
- Sales Rank: #1171208 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Scarecrow Press
- Published on: 2004-10-07
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 10.12" h x .30" w x 7.12" l, .54 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 120 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
For those interested in learning more about the intelligence-warning process, especially regarding terrorism, this book will be of particular interest....If her system is implemented, Khalsa predicts that her methodology will guard against up to 82 percent of the known common warning pitfalls, an impressive increase over the traditionally accepted 30-percent warning-accuracy rate....the United States will be in good hands as long as we have innovative thinkers like Sundri Khalsa. (Defense Intelligence Journal)
Captain Kalsa has developed an interesting approach to forecasting acts of terror... (Studies In Intelligence)
[Khalsa] argues convincingly that her approach will enhance analytical ability through automation and standardization of warning indicators...[her] efforts are reflective of the type of transformational thinking the defense department needs for immediate and long-term assessment of the terrorist threat...I predict that the US will be in good hands as long as we have innovative thinkers like Sundri Khalsa. (Lt Col Tony R. Mullis, USAF, Academic Instructor and Advisor, Air Command and Staff College)
About the Author
Sundri K. Khalsa has served as a military intelligence officer in the United States Air Force since 1996. She created the initial version of this forecasting methodology while serving in a leadership role in a counterintelligence/counter terrorism analysis cell in Saudi Arabia and further developed and refined this approach while at the Joint Military Intelligence College. Graduating first in her class, she was awarded the National Military Intelligence Association Award at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Joint Military Intelligence College.
Most helpful customer reviews
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Tactics and Techniques
By Retired Reader
The fictional spy, George Smiley, created by John Le Carre' once remarked that "It's such a mistake, I always feel, to put one's trust in technique." (from The Looking Glass War). In this remarkable book and CD produced by Sundri Khalsa, a good deal of trust is put into technique as a means of improving tactical threat and warning analysis.
Based on the absolutely correct assumption that warning intelligence is effective only if it is accepted and acted upon by decision makers, Khalsa has developed a unique information system to produce warning intelligence, supporting evidence, and realistic risk assessment. This system is dependent on the availability of all "raw intelligence" (i.e. single source) which `raw reporting profilers' then use to build a basic information base (Terrorism Forecasting Data Base). Then `indicator specialists' review and extract data from this base to build indicator lists, evidence logs, and "Indicator Warning Narratives." This information is then used by "senior warning officers" to develop and update executive summaries of the warning narratives and to present warning intelligence to decision makers. Central to this entire operation is a very large relational data base (such as those built by Oracle) fed by the `profilers' from data extracted by them from a comprehensive Intelligence Community wide raw intelligence data base. The relational data base relies heavily on pre-programmed input and results management sub-systems which are designed to the extent possible to avoid human errors.
The core idea behind Khalsa's concept is a good one, but she has failed to take into account the basic analytic capabilities required for the analysis of a complex subject such as terrorism. The `raw reporting profilers' are the critical ingredient in her system for everything else is dependent on what they enter into the information base. She maintains that a profiler should be able to profile and enter a raw intelligence every five minutes. This discounts the need for the profilers to have the target knowledge necessary to know what is important enough to extract from a raw intelligence report for a profile or even to identify a significant piece of raw intelligence. In the same way target knowledge would enable the profilers to relate one piece of raw intelligence to another in the information base. The `indicator specialists' would require an even deeper level of target knowledge to perform their jobs. The system Khalsa is advocating will work only if the individuals operating it have considerably more capability than she seems to believe they will need.
Methodology and technique are fine, but only if it is understood that it still requires dedicated and competent individuals to make them successful.
7 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
A solid positivist approach but nothing more
By Dr. Milo Jones
The approach taken in this manual is firmly grounded in the positivist social science models of the 1970s and early 1980s. While useful on a tactical level, this approach neglects asking the larger questions and assumptions that tend to lead to genuine strategic surprises. For forecasting the likelihood of the use of a certain tactic (terrorism) by a known enemy, this book is fine. If you're trying to avoid strategic surprises involving this tactic or others, the approach in this book (and others of its type) won't get you there.
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Dr. Robert D. Shanks Jr. (Col, USAFR Ret.)
By R. D. Shanks
As a former intelligence analyst, I can say with confidence this is a great source full of procedures leaving little to guess work. Many forget intelligence is an art not a science. Author Sundri Khalsa has provided a framework for analysis that is far superior to some hit and miss technigues used in the past. The safeguards against common warning pitfalls is unprecedented, a key tool for all who make policy and do intelligence analysis.
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